Early Voting Results in These Key States Are Bad News for Democrats



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According to a new poll from NBC News, Republican voters are well out-pacing their Democrat counterparts in early voting.

The GOP has taken a lead in early voting in key states such as Arizona, North Dakota, Florida, Indiana, Tennessee, and Texas.

Breitbart

All six of those states will be key to which political party controls the Senate. As of now, Republicans hold the slimmest majority of just 51 seats.

According to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, Republicans currently enjoy comfortable leads in three of those states: Tennessee (+6.5), North Dakota (+10.6), and Texas (+7.0). But only North Dakota would be a Republican pickup from an incumbent Democrat.

In the remaining three states — Indiana, Florida, and Montana — the incumbent Democrats all enjoy two to three point leads.

But as we saw during the 2016 presidential election, the polls might be missing something — like an unexpected surge of Republican enthusiasm, which would be picked up in early voting statistics such as these. Remember, polls are weighted based on the pollsters guess of what the electorate will look like.

“The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a ‘blue wave’ in next month’s midterm elections,” the far-left NBC wrote after analyzing this data from TargetSmart.

Only in Nevada, where Republican Sen. Dean Heller is struggling to hold his seat, are Democrat early voters outpacing Republicans. As of now, Heller is up just 1.7 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls.

Republicans are also outpacing Democrats in Georgia, where there is a tough gubernatorial battle taking place.

Here are the early voter numbers thus far:

Florida: 44 percent R, 38 percent D, 18 percent unaffiliated.

Indiana: 51 percent R, 39 percent D, 10 percent unaffiliated.

Montana: 46 percent R, 29 percent D, 25 percent unaffiliated.

Tennessee: 63 percent R, 30 percent D, 7 percent unaffiliated.

Georgia: 52 percent R, 43 percent D, 5 percent unaffiliated.

Nevada: 45 percent D, 38 percent R, 18 percent unaffiliated.

With all the media talk of a “Blue Wave” and a narrative that it is so certain it is Democrats chomping at the bit to vote and Democrats with a big edge in enthusiasm, the actual votes so far tallied do not read that way.

One person not surprised by any of this is Larry Schweikart, co-author of How Trump Won with Breitbart’s Joel Pollak.

Schweikart is not only one of the few people who correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, he has been closely watching the voter registration numbers for the 2018 midterms and predicting Republicans would surprise the “experts” again by turning out in droves, especially in early voting.

Breitbart News reached out to Schweikart to ask him about these numbers.

“I was always expecting this engagement,” he told me. “There never was a blue wave, and there never were ’40-60 [House] seats’ at risk — and Democrats were ALWAYS going to lose 4-7 senate seats.”

“This is not due to only Justice Kavanaugh or any other issue, but a common sense reading of who Republican voters are and how they generally do NOT get jazzed up for special elections,” he added, referring to the lackluster turnout from the GOP in a number of these special elections.

“Rather, Republicans try to ignore politics because they have families, churches, and lives. Then, in October, they begin to engage.”

What is important about these early voting numbers is that they are actual votes — not polls — actual votes. And while we can never guess with absolute certainly who these early votes are for, we can glean from these numbers who exactly has shown enough enthusiasm to cast their votes this early — and so far, other than Nevada, it is the GOP.

Another caveat is that Republicans generally outpace Democrats with absentee ballots — which is a form of early voting. However, Democrats usually outpace Republicans when it comes to early voting at a polling place. This means that in a state like Florida, where early poll voting has only just begun, the GOP edge is not unusual.

However, the fact that the numbers are where they should be does at least indicate that there is no Blue Wave swamping the Florida GOP, at least not yet.

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INDIANAPOLIS — A bus carrying teenagers returning to Indiana from a church camp in Michigan crashed Saturday afternoon just minutes from home, killing three people and sending 26 others to hospitals, officials said.

The bus came speeding off of Interstate 465 in northern Indianapolis, about a mile from the Colonial Hills Baptist Church that passengers attended, struck a retaining wall as it rounded a curve and overturned. The campers were returning from Camp CoBeAc in northern Michigan, about six hours away.

The church’s youth pastor had sent a tweet a couple of hours before the crash saying the group was expected to arrive at the church about 4:15 p.m., around the time the accident happened.

“They were not that far from home. That only adds to the tragedy,” said Indianapolis Public Safety Director Troy Riggs.

The dead included a man and his wife, Riggs said. Authorities did not provide information about the third victim.

Riggs and Mayor Greg Ballard visited the crash scene, where clothing, pillows and seat cushions from the bus were scattered along with at least two shattered windows, before they headed to the church. Riggs said there was no indication that the driver had a medical emergency and called the accident “a great tragedy.”

Ballard said investigators were taking measurements and examining the bus to determine the cause of the crash.

WTHR-TV reported the bus driver told witnesses his brakes failed. Indianapolis Fire Department Lt. Ato McTush said police and fire officials had not determined whether the church-owned bus, which was carrying 37 passengers plus the driver, had mechanical issues.

Duane Lloyd told WTHR that he heard a loud noise behind him as he was traveling near the intersection and saw the crash around 4:15 p.m.

“I heard a skid. I looked back. I see this bus in the air and people falling out of the bus,” Lloyd said. “I could have gone my whole life without seeing that.”

Karen Woodard, a member of Colonial Hills Baptist Church, cried as she stared at the wrecked bus.

“It’s so terrible. I can’t believe it,” she said.

Indianapolis Fire Department said crews had to free five people who were trapped inside after the crash. Several people stopped to help before first responders could arrive, including one man who helped pull the driver out of the bus, the department said.

“People were stopping their cars. People were literally trying to lift the bus,” Lloyd said. “You just try to do what you can do.”

Fire officials said the injured included children and adults.

Nine teenagers were taken to IU Health Methodist Hospital, including one in critical condition. Three of those were treated and released, hospital spokeswoman Sally Winter said. She said 10 others, including nine teenagers and a toddler, were taken to Riley Hospital for Children. Seven of those teenagers were treated and released, Winter said.

Many of the patients were suffering head, arm and leg injuries, fire officials said.

Roads near the scene were closed, and authorities urged people to use caution in the area. A hazardous materials crew was cleaning up diesel fuel that spilled in the crash.

Outside the church, a yellow school bus with the church school’s name was parked outside with piles of sleeping bags and suitcases nearby. Families hugged outside and talked quietly before going inside, where they met with Ballard and Riggs Saturday evening.

Ballard described the families as “remarkably positive” despite their sorrow.

“Some of the teenagers are hurting pretty bad and you can see that in their faces,” he said.

Church member Jeff Leffew, 44, of Fishers, who had three daughters on the bus that crashed and a fourth on a second bus, said he was waiting to pick them up in the church parking lot when the second bus arrived. He said he knew immediately that something was wrong because the kids on the bus were screaming.

He went to the crash scene and found his three daughters with only bumps and bruises.

He called the crash scene “surreal.”

“You’re just praying that it’s not as bad as it looks,” he said.

Credit: RICK CALLAHAN